THE SKIER’S ALMANAC: HOW CREDIBLE ARE THE PRE-SEASON FORECASTS?

(Little Cottonwood Canyon 301 inches in the first two months. Photo by Chloe Jimenez)

Hey all - Tanner here (if this is your first time at the Lodge, check out our past ones here).

It’s November, and as ski resorts start opening, the buzz around winter snow predictions gets louder. Headlines are screaming, “EPIC Winter Incoming!” or, conversely, “Brace Yourself for a Snow Drought.” So, are these early predictions even real—or more like those tales of cliffs you've jumped that seem to get bigger with each retelling?

Here’s a look at pre-season predictions, how they’re created, and why they may or may not tell us anything useful about our powder days.

(Little Cottonwood Canyon reaches 800 inches. Photo: Photo John)

(No Tide in European Resorts Photo: Armin Durgut)

The Farmer’s Almanac: Ancient Wisdom or Just a Good Guess?

 

The OG of winter predictions, the Farmer’s Almanac has been around since 1818, drawing long-range forecasts with mixed success. It claims to be about 80-85% accurate, though studies peg it closer to 50-52%—basically a coin toss. They rely on secret methods involving sunspots, the moon, and planetary positions, rather than actual weather science. It's like astrology for the weather I guess. While it’s charming to think that the Almanac has some mystical insight, maybe leave it to predict when to plant your tomatoes, not your ski vacation plans.

Enter the less fun but far more accurate scientists over at NOAA.

NOAA doesn’t dabble in mysterious formulas. The agency uses data from satellites, ocean buoys, and other sophisticated sources. In fact, NOAA has it's own kind of navy called the NOAA Corpso (I only know this because my friend is in it) If you live in Colorado, you can see the NOAA headquarters near the Flatirons.

This year, NOAA has launched some shiny new tools to improve winter predictions, and they’re worth a mention. For starters, the Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI-P) gives a 7-day impact forecast. They’ve also simplified some of their cold-weather warnings. Now, instead of an overwhelming barrage of warnings and advisories, it’s all streamlined into “Extreme Cold” and “Cold Weather Advisory” alerts. And coming in November is a public-facing Probabilistic Precipitation Portal, which will give you probabilistic snow (and rain) totals for different regions. Now that’s a mouthful, but it should help emergency management plan and provide some tools for people trying to dodge winter storms (or chase them in our case).

This year NOAA has stated that it's a La Niña year. Which you might have some vague idea of what that means but you can't remember if that means it's going to dump a ton of snow or it's abnormally dry. .

 

(Winter Precipitation & Temperature Predictions Credit: NOAA)

What is La Niña?


La Niña is a climate pattern that cools surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, causing changes in global weather. This cooler ocean water shifts atmospheric conditions, generally leading to wetter, colder winters across the northern U.S. and drier, warmer winters in the southern states. While La Niña years don’t guarantee snow for every mountain, they often lead to a more northerly storm track, bringing increased precipitation to places like the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes.


For 2024-2025, they’ve flagged a developing La Niña, which generally means:

  1. Northern U.S: A more northerly storm track should bring above-average precipitation to areas like the Great Lakes and Pacific Northwest.
  2. Southern U.S: Meanwhile, southern states may see warmer and drier conditions.
  3. Central Regions: For everyone else, it’s a bit of a wildcard—an equal chance of above, below, or near-average snow and temperatures.

For Colorado skiers, it means waiting to see which way the snow blows. NOAA isn’t offering exact snow totals months out (thanks, science), but they’re giving us a decent guess on broader trends. NOAA’s forecast gives us a rough idea of whether the mountains are primed for snow or drought, but predicting exact snow for February in Colorado? Not happening. Winter storm paths are too variable for that. The best precise forecasts come within about a week, which is why apps like OpenSnow are so useful once winter really hits.

La Niña may give us hope for a snowier winter up north, but the exact days and totals will depend on real-time weather dynamics—meaning, we’re all still crossing our fingers.

(Little Cottonwood Canyon reaches 800 inches. Photo: Chloe Jimenez)

We have to mention climate change

If you haven't seen some of the work over at POW, go check them out. You'll find the most admirable mountain athletes out there putting on a tie for the first time to go talk to congress about how the trend of a warmer and warmer climate is ruining the very places we use to ski, bike, or climb. Climate change is making long-range snow predictions more challenging by altering traditional weather patterns and pushing global temperatures higher. Warmer temperatures impact snow levels by shortening the length of winters and melting snow faster at lower elevations, causing snow seasons to shift. This unpredictability affects seasonal trends like La Niña and El Niño, with oceans warming at different rates and irregular storm tracks forming. As a result, predicting snowfall for ski areas months in advance has become more complex, leading to greater reliance on real-time forecasts as the season progresses.

Even with all the science and shiny new tools, no one can tell you in the early winter exactly how many powder days you’ll score this season. It’s all about general trends, and it’s still best to keep an eye on week-to-week forecasts and be ready for anything.

 

In other words, don’t sweat the early-season hype too much. Stay grateful and flexible. Whether it’s a season we talk about for years (lookin' at you 22/23) or just another winter, make the most of it when it counts.

 

See you out there!

- Tanner

 

 

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